One of the most advanced models of the impacts of climate change on GDP is Kotz et al. (2022), because it includes not only variables to distinguish the effect of temperature shocks from long-term effects (at least, in theory), but also five additional variables that get at extremes and variability.
The original paper found statistically significant effects across many of those variables, but it did not actually look at projections of the model under future climate change.
Our new study, published in Nature Climate Change, takes this step and looks closely at what matters. We look at how effects vary across time, countries, and variables. We also have a pretty big headline number: at 3°C, the world could be 10% poorer.
Maybe the most interesting result is that non-temperature predictors contribute almost nothing to global damages. That could mean that we– as the research community– are still looking for the right temperatures, but it certainly suggests that temperature is hugely important. In fact, including these variability and extremes variables actually increases the estimate of the role of temperature effects.
You can read the complete study here: https://rdcu.be/dNwDT
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