I have a poster at AGU presenting my work with Mark Cane on using process-based crop models to predict agricultural yields, and then using those predicted yields as exogenous variation to predict conflict.
(The poster is big: try looking at the lower resolution PNG version if you have trouble.)
Additional material is available in several forms, but the most fully consolidated form (focused just on the yield results) is this document which I brought to the AgMIP conference in NYC last month: AgMIP Summary.
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