James A. Rising

Impulse Responses to ENSO

June 7, 2014 · Leave a Comment

El Nino and La Nina affects crops in a lot of different ways. I’ve been looking at the response of agricultural yields over time to an ENSO event, where, depending on the dynamics of the social-natural system, impacts could persist for years after the impact or even emerge before the impact.

Here’s what country-wide production look like, in this impulse response framework. Neither Chile nor Egypt show a response to La Nina, but they both have strong responses (which appear to oscillate) to Modoki El Ninos.

country-response

The map below shows areas where Maize is grown (anywhere but black). Areas in white show no significant response from ENSO. Colored areas deviate from grey in three bands: red for a response to traditional El Ninos, green for a response to Modoki El Ninos, and blue for La Ninas.

yieldcorr

Categories: Research

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